Saturday, 19 September 2015

Probability proving creationism?

The probability argument of DNA is a common argument that I find creationists use against abiogenesis being a viable theory for the start of life which then leads to cells, multi-cellular organisms and so on and so forth. In a nutshell the basic idea is that for DNA to form it requires too many chance encounters and as such the chance becomes so small that it is ridiculous to believe that DNA could exist without the existence of a God to make the DNA happen. To put it more simply what this statement implies is the following: God is probable, while DNA formation through abiogenesis is not probable.

(Source)

As always when a claim like this is made we can do the simple and test it by following  simple formulas. Wait, do not run away this is not going to go into math equations its far easier than that. With probability we look at the chance that something can happen and assign a value to it. In the sane way when we look at a series of probabilities we add these values of chance together and we obtain a final probability value which tells us the chance of something happening. So for example, if we consider the formation of DNA  according to abiogenesis we need to consider (very simplistically) probability that 1) atoms can form molecules, 2) these molecules can self replicate and 3) that they can group together in cellular like structures. On the other hand if we consider that god created DNA then we need only consider the probability that god exists. So with this in mind lets start assigning some random values.

Abiogenesis to DNA (method 1)
Atoms can form molecules this is basic chemistry, molecules can self replicate again basic chemistry, formation of simple cells again basic chemistry.
Probability of DNA method 1= a positive value.

God creation of DNA (method 2)
There is no verifiable proof that God exists.
Probability of DNA method 2 = 0

Now tell me again that the formation of DNA from nothing is not probable while saying that God is.